聚焦饲料谷物：需求的减少导致了更惨淡的销量 Feedgrain FocusThin Demand Meets Thinner Selling
Feedgrain Focus: Thin Demand Meets Thinner Selling
聚焦饲料谷物：需求的减少导致了更惨淡的销量
Source from Beef Central , Liz Wells, 22/01/2024
消息来源自Beef Central 网站，Liz Wells 2024年1月22日的报道
WHEAT and barley have traded sideways in the past week as growers do their darnedest to keep supply-side pressure off the market. This is masking the effect on price of lacklustre demand from the export market which has a decidedly softer tone, partly due to competition from the Black Sea and Argentina. The tail end of harvest is dragging on in south-west Victoria and South Australia’s South East, with all cereals expected to be off by the end of next week, weather permitting.
过去一周，小麦和大麦的交易一直处于横盘整理，因为种植者竭尽全力阻止市场承受供应方压力。这掩盖了出口市场需求低迷对价格的影响，出口市场的基调明显疲软，部分原因是来自黑海和阿根廷的竞争。维多利亚州西南部和南澳大利亚州东南部的收获工作正在拖延，如果天气允许，预计所有谷物收获工作将在下周末结束。
Sorghum softens
New-crop sorghum has started to hit the bins this week in what will be a long and stop-start harvest to reflect widely varying sowing times.While the earliest southern Queensland and northern New South Wales crops are now being harvested, planting of the Central Queensland crop is yet to start in earnest. Trade sources report interest from China in sorghum has backed off, and with sorghum still not showing a large enough discount to white grains to spark widespread domestic demand for those feeding pigs and chickens, the market has fallen.Barley is the preferred grain for feedlots over summer, and traders say they have all fully covered themselves up to the changeover to wheat expected around April when the weather cools down.
高粱软化
新作高粱本周已开始上市，这将是一个漫长且断断续续的收获过程，以反映播种时间的广泛差异。虽然昆士兰南部和新南威尔士州北部最早的作物现已收获，但昆士兰中部作物的播种尚未正式开始。贸易消息人士称，中国对高粱的兴趣已经减弱，而且由于高粱仍没有比白粮有足够大的折扣，无法激发国内对猪和鸡饲料的广泛需求，因此市场已经下跌。大麦是夏季饲养场的首选谷物，贸易商表示，他们已经完全做好了准备，预计四月份天气转凉后将转向小麦。
As with the previous harvest, new-crop barley in Qld and northern NSW has had unusually low protein, and many growers who often produce feed have made malting specs. They are holding their barley in the hope that China-driven malting demand kicks into the northern market later in the year. Sources say an abundance of high test-weight ASW wheat throughout eastern Australia will keep it in rations over the winter months.
与上一季一样，昆士兰州和新南威尔士州北部的新作大麦蛋白质含量异常低，许多经常生产饲料的种植者制定了麦芽规格。他们持有大麦，希望中国驱动的麦芽需求能在今年晚些时候进入北方市场。消息人士称，澳大利亚东部地区大量的高容重ASW澳大利亚标准白麦将保证冬季的定量供应。
End to southern harvest in sight
Across much of eastern and South Australia, recent weeks have brought enough rain to fill or substantially top up subsoil-moisture profiles ahead of winter-crop planting which will start in April. The downside is that many later crops in Vic and SA spent a week or more past their ideal harvest date in the paddock because of rain and boggy conditions, and have lost brightness and weight. Red feed wheat varieties grown in high-rainfall zones are the most affected, and some grain which has had considerable rain on it in the head is shot and sprung. Mr Lewis said plenty of good-quality ASW wheat from harvest was on hand in Vic, and exporters may be able to blend it with a small amount of downgraded wheat to meet standards of export customers buying feed.
南方收获即将结束
在澳大利亚东部和南部的大部分地区，最近几周带来了足够的降雨，在四月开始的冬季作物播种之前填补或大幅补充了地下土壤的水分状况。不利的一面是，由于降雨和沼泽条件，维多利亚州和南澳州的许多晚熟作物在围场里的理想收获日期晚了一周或更长时间，并且失去了亮度和重量。在高降雨量地区种植的红饲料小麦品种受到的影响最为严重，一些头部遭受大量降雨的谷物会被射出并发芽。Riordan谷物服务公司经理Mark Lewis表示，维州有大量收获后的优质ASW小麦，出口商或许能够将其与少量降级小麦混合，以满足出口客户购买饲料的标准。
Despite sporadic Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, grain exports globally are continuing apace from origins including the Black Sea. Mr Lewis said grower requirements to finance new-crop inputs ahead of what could be an early start to planting may force some sales out of warehousing and on-farm storage.However, those sales may be of canola, said to be warehoused in an unusually large amount due to higher-than-expected yields for many, and prices below grower selling targets at harvest.
尽管胡塞武装对红海航运进行了零星袭击，而且乌克兰与俄罗斯的冲突仍在持续，但全球粮食出口仍在快速增长，包括黑海在内的产地。刘易斯先生表示，种植者要求在可能提前开始种植之前为新作物投入提供资金，这可能会迫使部分销售从仓储和农场储存中转移出来。然而，这些销售的可能是双低油菜籽，据说由于许多油菜籽的单产高于预期，而且价格低于种植者收获时的销售目标，因此库存量异常大。
² The above information is for reference only.
